Post Covid Business Predictions
Strategically align your business for the change following covid-19. Plan and prepare to get ahead with these insightful predictions.
#7 Property Investments & Leasing
Watch out for high-rise office buildings becoming strata titled residential blocks. Office space will take a hit as more people continue to work from home, companies retrench or vacate premises. Mixed-use will become more the norm for where office places once stood.
#8 Changing Markets
We are still 'stuck in the middle' to a certain extent with some companies partially open, some not, some still in lockdown, etc. Internationally, we need to be cognisant of the rules by country, by state, and those self-imposed by people (i.e. some will stay in full isolation).
We need to read the market, sense how customers are really doing (some will tip over, so we need to read the early signs!), and still improve on our transitional ‘Business as Usual’.
Be aware that we are in for a slog with some reprieve, but more often juggling and changing priorities. My prediction is that we will not have a stabilised ‘new normal’ for at least three years.
One of the first crunch points will be when the wage subsidy stops, landlords have exhausted all manner of benevolence, and mass redundancies start to occur. This will have an impact on our market and the nerves of the public. Governments around the world will have rescue packages, election bribes spanning many years but not delivering much now, quantum easing, OCR changes, LVR adjustments (already done), and company bailouts along with privatisation. Some people just will not pay. Rather than get overly concerned about this (as it's going to happen anyway), it is best to prepare ourselves for the onslaught and learn what to do when ‘x’ happens.
The reason so many video conferences/webinars are occurring is that people are trying to learn. Now is the time.
So, we need to focus on the work in hand, but continually evaluate if it is relevant. Work collegially and cooperatively. A good attitude can assist the bad times to feel a little better. Remember also that there is always someone out there with a worse story than our own.
Breathe, keep calm, and talk things through as required. In all cases, ask yourself: “Can I do anything to either change the situation or my outlook to it?”
#9 How predictions can become opportunities
Most people can make predictions around the downturn (or turn turtle) of international tourism, the impact many cafés and restaurants will feel, that online streaming providers such as Netflix will find another Joe Exotic, and that hand sanitiser will finally find its equilibrium. Some would have predicted that Zoom would overtake Skype. Here are a few others which are worthy of consideration: business attire will relax (or at least from the waist down) as cameras focus on head and shoulders; home carpet will get worn by office chairs; insurance companies will see a niche in home office cover; BYOD will become TYBD (take your boss’s device); bringing kids and dogs to work will become more normal in the post Covid landscape.
Opportunities lie when you are ahead of the wave.
#10 A change in media
Pets show anxiety issues because they are now left at home, and no doubt some children too. With so many apps available, we need to remember whether to Zoom, Skype, WeChat, Messenger, Hangouts, etc. etc. … but wait, as an aggregator/consolidator will soon be here. T
his space will change. More ad content has had its validation, so the payday is now for many apps to be sold/amalgamated. The mediascape has changed as we all know, now watch the appscape.
#11 The Supply Chain
The shock to the economy is both demand shock and supply shock. Demand shock impacts the likes of tourism, education, exports, etc., while supply shock affects our imported products such as supplies and imported workers.
While the GFC was more orientated to demand shock, this collision requires both demand and supply to come into equilibrium to allow the flow of goods. Businesses will find themselves hamstrung, being unable to move nimbly as they are restricted by legacy supply or legacy route to market systems.
Enter the new supply chain this time multipronged and reaching into differing supply markets (read countries), yet good buffers being on the ground in NZ. Buffer stocks held as contingencies are now needed ‘just in case’ and as they are likely consignment stocks, the purchaser hasn’t increased their financial stockholding. More critical components will be moved to NZ manufacture so that ‘the battle is not lost all for the sake of a horseshoe nail’.
#12 Post Covid Business Predictions
In times of unemployment, it’s usually the big cities which offer up the opportunity of employment. This time is likely to be different. Councils’ rates bases being significantly hit with reduced retail space and diminishing business contribution will see them struggle to provide the extra flair outside the ‘lipstick factor’ of some nice flowerbeds. Cities will not look so attractive until they reposition themselves.
With ‘work from home’ (WFH) having caught on, councils with excellent fibre connections, good hospitals (we now know what they are for and why they are important, if we didn’t already), and open spaces will see migration to their towns. The exurb seen all those years ago continues …
#13 Post Covid Business Predictions
Bicycle riding has seen an increase under Level 4 lockdown, and with dusted off bikes comes the need for new bikes, possibly even electric bikes. What is probably not on most people’s radar, is that actual road bikes currently make up a small percentage of bike sales here in NZ. My prediction is that this will change. Many cycleways being developed cater for the urban cyclist, and now the perfect domain for a road bike exists. Road cycling will also attract pack rides, with the opportunity to either ride in tight or in 2 metre fashioned bubble formation! So mountain bikers watch out, the new breed of road cyclist is about to be reborn ‘the café racer’ that is cycling from café to café.
#14 Post Covid Business Predictions
As with any good rugby game, power cut or Level 4 lockdown, a baby boom will follow nine months later. While Post Covid businesses are likely to sport names such as Phoenix, baby names which may trend well include Covey, Cory, Corina and Bubs, Bubble or Bubbles … and expect lots of baby gear to be on Christmas shopping lists this year.
> Read more Covid Predictions Vol 2
