Post Covid Business Predictions - Vol 4

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#29 Staff Cuts

Previous recessions saw many staff lose their jobs at the ‘coal face’.  While this will occur, there are many unknowns as to how the rebound will look.  This is due in part to wage subsidies, low or no cost loans, and unknown timeframes as to borders easing and to which markets.  

Business owners are therefore holding on to their customer facing teams, having them at the ready for any upswing.  But the delays are hurting business, so costs need to be cut somewhere.  Therefore, the focus will shift to removing all or part of the middle management level – allowing the business to retain its strategic nous and delivery mechanism, but resulting in the loss of much of its institutional knowledge.

#30 Business for Sale

Many businesses will be put up for sale, some will close, and some will limp on till they finally fail.  The traditional buyers may not be ready to commit to purchasing a business.  However, there is another buyer, one who can vertically integrate a business into their existing one.  Manufacturers who want to ensure they control the route to market will buy downstream businesses such as outlets and online stores, big retailers will buy their suppliers to ensure continuity of supply, and those who can own their raw material source will consider this too.  When companies own their supply chain end-to-end, the ability to prove provenance/origin is also a valuable marketing angle.

#31 Wealthy Civil Servants

The new wealthy are likely to be civil servants.  As a generalisation, this group has more job security, has stayed within the employ of government for longer than those in private sector positions, has lower debt, and in many cases, is more risk averse.  Prudence pays off with a war chest of equity ready for deployment to buy up property for the rental market as the real estate market tanks.  Unperturbed by tenants’ rights, they want long-term tenants rather than seeing property as a trading operation, and will buy more houses to grow their passive incomes and nest eggs.

#32 Cashless Society

So, we now live in the world of contactless payment.  Cheques were on the way out, and Covid-19 has assisted in accelerating this.  As we move to a cashless society from a transactional perspective, the question is whether cash disappears altogether from the banking world, and if cash goes, what is the currency that replaces it?  Is it still the same, or do cryptocurrencies run in parallel or take over?  My prediction isn’t specific, but there is massive change to occur.  Gold still holds value, currently nickel does not.  With Coronavirus apparently living for less time on copper and aluminium, will we see these surging in value as they get utilised for toilet and door fittings?  Precious metals now have an extended meaning.

#33 Hygiene

Toilets have long been held as the repository of germs.  Enter the new super germ: Covid-19.  Not only will we see contactless entry into washrooms and so many other rooms and buildings, but we will also see changes occur wherever hands are utilised.  Bidets are a perfect example of how to keep hands that much cleaner, watch for their presence to grow – soft music, warmers, and all!

 #34 House Design

Residential sections have become smaller in recent history.  More compact housing has become the vogue.  This will change.  As ‘work from home’ becomes more acceptable and popular, along with retailers going online, houses will need to cater for stock holdings and an office environment.  House layouts will change, and those being built on smaller sections are likely to be multi-level homes.  The 1970s 5-bedroom suburban home with rumpus room may just be the perfect fit for the new way of living and working.